ecb meeting 2020
Doha: The Euro area is struggling with a resurgence of Covid-19 now that the weather is colder and people are spending more time together indoors, which increases the rate of infection of the virus. Thursday December 3, 2020 10:54 am. The latest data supported the view that the recovery had been losing steam in the euro area. Qatar-US trade volume reaches QR11.72bn... Qatar-US trade volume reaches QR11.72bn in first nine months, Virtual Indonesian trade expo invites Qatari investors, QFZA Chairman showcases Qatar’s attractive investment climate in Los Angeles event. In its communication the Governing Council should strongly welcome the NGEU package and encourage the EU institutions to approve this package swiftly in order to activate it in a timely manner to support the regions and sectors hardest hit by the pandemic. There was not a single euro area country that was not benefiting from negative yields, in most cases extending out to the three-year maturity. However, by the time of the December monetary policy meeting, information would be available on major geopolitical developments – such as the result of the US presidential election and Brexit – as well as the initial evidence on the effectiveness of the new restrictions in containing the spread of the virus and their impact on the economy. Policymakers are likely … It could not be excluded that the euro area, or at least some countries, would experience a double-dip recession. This week’s ECB meeting has been given extra importance by the recent currency moves and weak inflation data. Regarding wage growth, euro area compensation per employee growth and compensation per hour growth had diverged strongly due to large changes in hours worked. QNB expects the ECB to extend the availability of the facility from June to end-2021. ECB CRIB Sheet September 2020 Meeting. 500 James Robertson Parkway, Davy Crockett Tower, Nashville, Tennessee 37243-0582 | Telephone: (615) 253-2164 | Fax: (615) 401-7642 | Email: [email protected] Regarding recent developments in inflation expectations, members noted that longer-term inflation expectations reported in the ECB’s SPF were stable at 1.7%, while market-based indicators of inflation expectations had declined slightly, with the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead standing at 1.16%. Author. Find out how the ECB promotes safe and efficient payment and settlement systems, and helps to integrate the infrastructure for European markets. The results of the euro area bank lending survey signalled a tightening of credit standards in the third quarter of 2020, mainly on account of the deterioration in banks’ perceptions of the risks to the macroeconomic environment and borrowers’ creditworthiness. At the same time, markets were seen to remain fragile and could face a correction in pricing – for example in the event of a no-deal Brexit, a further worsening of the pandemic or if an agreement on the disbursement of funds under the NGEU plan was delayed. The decrease in headline inflation, from -0.2% in August to -0.3% in September, reflected lower inflation not only for energy but also for non-energy industrial goods and services. The view was expressed that fiscal initiatives to address non-performing loans and ensure an adequately capitalised banking sector should be encouraged, while monetary policy was playing its part in supporting favourable financing conditions and ample liquidity in the banking sector. The minutes echoed the official wording at the October press conference that the risks surrounding the growth outlook are “clearly tilted to the downside”. Furthermore, members widely agreed that, given the sharper slowdown in growth momentum and the weakening of underlying inflation dynamics compared with what had previously been expected, as well as the deterioration in the balance of risks, it would be warranted to recalibrate the monetary policy instruments in December. Provided that the funds were deployed for productive public spending and accompanied by productivity-enhancing structural reforms, the NGEU programme would contribute to a faster, stronger and more uniform recovery and would thereby enhance resilience and the growth potential of EU Member States’ economies, supporting the effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area. The ECB policy meeting is taking place against a more urgent backdrop - preview (but little EUR impact?) The point was made that heightened uncertainty surrounding the second wave of the pandemic and the associated containment measures could pose renewed risks to the transmission of monetary policy through the banking sector, which required close monitoring. In the euro area, by contrast, inflation expectations had trended lower since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting, thereby also putting downward pressure on yields. At the same time, it was underlined in this context that it was important to stress the temporary nature of the current inflation dynamics, partly owing to special factors such as exceptional patterns in seasonal sales and temporary tax reductions. Bank lending rates remained very favourable, close to their historical lows. October 11, 2020, 9:19 AM EDT Updated on October 11, 2020, 10:29 AM EDT 2:31. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. However, the view was expressed that the probability that inflation rates would be closer to the severe scenario included in the September staff projections was increasing, even if no additional negative surprises were to materialise. In September, the ECB estimated a contraction of 8% in euro zone GDP this year, followed by a rebound of 5% in 2021. Meeting of 28-29 October 2020 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 28-29 October 2020 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial market developments ECB Member of the Executive Board Isabel Schnabel discusses the Governing Council's policy options for its December meeting from the virtual ECB Forum on Central Banking. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html 2020-11-25 16:30:00 Oil Price Outlook: Break of 3Q Range Sends RSI Towards Overbought Zone. QNB does not expect Euro area GDP to return to its pre-crisis levels until 2022. At the October meeting, the ECB kept the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, marginal lending facility and deposit facility steady at 0%, 0.25% and -0.5%, respectively. Accordingly, measures of underlying inflation were likely to remain subdued in the context of weak demand and significant slack in labour and product markets. 12 March 2020 At today’s meeting the Governing Council decided on a comprehensive package of monetary policy measures: (1) Additional longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) will be conducted, temporarily, to provide immediate liquidity support to the euro area financial system. In this context, members emphasised the role of both national and European fiscal policy in cushioning the impact on the economy of necessary containment measures. It was pointed out that 35% of all items were currently posting negative growth rates and underlying price pressures were also weak, raising concerns over a lasting impact. If more has to be done, we will do more”. Once the impact of the pandemic faded, a recovery in demand, supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, would put upward pressure on inflation over the medium term. Thursday December 3, 2020 1:47 pm. This allowed the Governing Council to effectively stave off risks to the smooth transmission of monetary policy. The Governing Council would reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2022. Sovereign spreads had declined further amid expectations of additional monetary and fiscal support. ECB Meeting Preview. The outlook for business investment was depressed by weak demand, low revenues and low profitability. Moreover, the point was made that governments might be more prudent in easing containment measures after the experience of the summer months. In normal circumstances, the ECB’s Governing Council holds two meetings every month in Frankfurt am Main in Germany at the ECB premises.. Every 6 weeks, the Governing Council holds a monetary policy meeting, when they are charged with assessing monetary and economic developments within the Eurozone and making … More concerning is the broad-based weakness across other components since July as demand for goods and services have been more severely impacted by the pandemic than the supply side of the economy. However, following the trough in April 2020, the euro area economy had rebounded strongly in the third quarter, likely more than had been expected in the September ECB staff projections, making up a large part of the contraction in the first half of the year. The first reason related to risk sentiment. Risk asset markets were largely unchanged despite significant intra-period fluctuations and, overall, euro area financial conditions remained broadly stable. This assessment largely reflected the recent resurgence in COVID-19 infections, the associated intensification of containment measures and the high uncertainty surrounding the timeline of the pandemic and the implications for economic and financial conditions. As in March, the economic situation was once again changing rapidly. 3 - Top LHS) - if we exclude this … The degree of accommodation currently embedded in euro area sovereign bond markets was practically unprecedented since the global financial crisis, both in its scale and its breadth across countries. See a full calendar of Governing Council meetings Mr Lane reviewed the global environment and recent economic and monetary developments in the euro area. The curve was now measurably below the pre-pandemic level and firmly in negative territory up to the ten-year maturity. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during the 16th Congress of Regions in Saint-Ouen, north of Paris, France, on October 19, 2020. 2020-07-162020-07-16 By finanz.dk. This included a new round of macroeconomic projections, which would allow a reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks. Meeting of 29-30 April 2020 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 29-30 April 2020 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial market developments Ms Schnabel reviewed the financial market developments since the Governing Council's … The euro-area economy is seeing initial signs of strained financing conditions, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said in remarks … The Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting is held every six weeks, with the next meeting scheduled for Thursday 12 March 2020. High-frequency mobility indicators for transport, retail and recreation had started to weaken. As regards financial conditions in the euro area, the EONIA forward curve remained slightly inverted, but there were no firm expectations of an imminent rate cut. Ensuring that every citizen can effectively access the life-saving power of 911. Euro Area: ECB stands pat in October; points to December meeting for further easing. Mr Dombrovskis, Commission Executive Vice-President**, Ms Senkovic, Secretary, Director General Secretariat, Mr Smets, Secretary for monetary policy, Director General Economics, Mr Winkler, Deputy Secretary for monetary policy, Senior Adviser, DG Economics, Mr Bracke, Deputy Director General Communications, Ms Rahmouni-Rousseau, Director General Market Operations, Mr Rostagno, Director General Monetary Policy, Mr Sousa, Deputy Director General Economics. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility would remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. ECB's Lagarde cautioned against an immediate economic impact from a Covid-19 vaccine, while giving more details about what the central bank is likely to do next. 23 January 2020 At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and … The ECB meeting on January 23 concluded as expected: ... and we are unlikely to learn much more until the conclusion of the review at the end of 2020. October 11, 2020, 9:19 AM EDT ... ECB to Decide ‘Meeting by Meeting’ on Stimulus, Lane to WSJ By . The European Central Bank opted Thursday to keep its interest rates and emergency coronavirus stimulus program unchanged, while it monitors the … It was noted that taking monetary policy decisions in December would be consistent with prevailing market expectations. The week ahead - EU summit, ECB rate meeting, China trade, Rolls Royce, Ted Baker, Ocado and Airbnb IPO ANALYSIS | 12/4/2020 3:27:22 PM It was remarked, however, that the results of the bank lending survey should not be over-interpreted or overstated in view of the very substantial credit easing observed in the second quarter, underpinned by state-guaranteed lending. Incoming data and survey results signalled that the euro area economic recovery was losing momentum more rapidly than expected. This provided tangible evidence of how the common European response to the crisis had helped to alleviate pressure on euro area sovereign funding and hence financing conditions. We have local meetings world-wide as well as email and phone meetings. Direct market finance had been hit by the acute market turmoil in the initial phase of the crisis but had subsequently benefited from the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP). The Minister of State and Chairman of Qatar Free Zones Authority (QFZA), H E Ahmad Al Sayed, yesterday participated at a discussion hosted by the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. It has two types of meetings: a monetary policy meeting, held every six weeks, and a non-monetary policy meeting in which it discusses the other responsibilities of the ECB. This increase in Covid-19 infections is coinciding with the flu season that lasts from October until May in the Northern Hemisphere, which raises concerns over the capacity of the health care infrastructure such has hospital beds and particularly intensive care beds. Inflation in the eurozone remains stable at -0.3% in November. However,QNB considers this move unlikely because it would further reduce the profitability of Euro area banks, which find it difficult to pass-on negative interest rates to depositors and other sources of funding. ET First Published: Oct. 27, 2020 at 4:16 p.m. By the time of the December meeting, updated staff projections would be available and a clearer picture of the dynamics of the pandemic and prospects of a vaccine might have emerged, together with more information on the fiscal policy responses in the euro area. The ECB’s main tool is asset purchases, often referred to as quantitate easing (QE). However, the incoming data pointed to a more severe slowdown in growth momentum and a weakening of underlying inflation dynamics compared with the previously expected recovery path. Furthermore, the ECB is currently supporting banks through Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations-III (TLTRO-III). Euro area real GDP had contracted by 11.8%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2020. In this post, we will talk about how the ECB meeting affects traders and the upcoming ECB Meeting Schedule in 2020. Euro Area: ECB stands pat in October; points to December meeting for further easing October 29, 2020 On 29 October, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at their all-time lows of 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively. Rising COVID-19 infection rates were seen as undermining confidence again and leading to additional containment measures, generating a loss in growth momentum in the fourth quarter earlier and at a faster pace than had been foreseen. The Bank also reaffirmed its emergency … Pending that information, Mr Lane proposed leaving the overall monetary policy stance unchanged and reconfirming the full set of existing monetary policy measures. Home Financial news ECB July 2020 meeting. Key figures and latest releases at a glance. The moment has surely built for the ECB. Moreover, weaker balance sheets and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook were weighing on business investment. The impact of the latest developments in growth and inflation on the medium-term outlook for inflation would have to be carefully evaluated in the December projections. The TLTROs were seen to be providing funding to banks at favourable rates and contributing to low interest rates for bank lending, and had so far successfully averted a credit crunch. In particular, after muted reactions in the earlier stages of the pandemic, credit standards on loans to firms had tightened in the third quarter of 2020. In bond markets, heightened expectations of fiscal stimulus in the United States had led to a notable steepening of the US Treasury curve, also reflecting rising inflation expectations. Thursday’s ECB policy meeting and press conference will likely play an important role in the future direction of the single currency although it may be talk rather than action that sets the tone. The pace of monthly loan flows to firms had recently moderated and the results from the bank lending survey pointed to deteriorating credit conditions. Focus on ECB meeting next week ECB President Christine Lagarde warned last month that despite the progress on Covid-19 vaccines, there could still … With regard to the monetary analysis, members broadly agreed with the assessment provided by Mr Lane in his introduction that broad money (M3) growth continued to reflect domestic credit creation and the ongoing asset purchases by the Eurosystem. European Central Bank Meeting Dates in 2019 and 2020. Following a strong, but partial and uneven, rebound in the third quarter, the rise in COVID-19 cases and the associated intensification of containment measures was weighing on activity and constituted a clear deterioration in the near-term outlook. For instance, the service sector PMI in the four largest Euro area economies has drifted lower and now indicates contraction. At present, euro area firms’ cash coverage was nearly four times higher than at the height of the global financial crisis. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio would be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance. Since early October 2020, the three-month EURIBOR had traded below the deposit facility rate, and corporates could issue three-month commercial paper at rates close to the deposit facility rate, providing an important liquidity backstop for corporates, with rates falling even faster at longer tenors. Weaker balance sheets and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook were weighing on business investment. One-week EUR/USD FX option expiry now captures next Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, but dealers haven't added much in the way of event-risk premium, which might be a mistake. Tennessee Emergency Communications Board. Turning to money and credit, broad money (M3) growth remained buoyant, accelerating in September to 10.4% in annual terms. Turning to the euro area, output had rebounded strongly in the third quarter of 2020. There had been a strong negative correlation between euro area sovereign spreads and US stock price developments in the weeks before the current meeting. Due to the continued spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19), the Organising Committee of the Joint ECB2020 and IBS 2020 Congress have taken the decision to postpone this year's Congress, due to take place from 28 June to 1 July 2020. The European Central Bank’s chief economist plans to place private calls to banks and investors after the ECB’s policy meeting next week, he said 2 December, continuing an unusual communications practice that has raised eyebrows among financiers and central-bank officials. It was stressed that monetary policy had to aim to preserve favourable financing conditions in the future in order to support economic activity. Newsletter. Against this backdrop, members supported the proposal by Mr Lane to leave the overall monetary policy stance unchanged and to reconfirm the full set of existing monetary policy instruments. TLTRO III was seen to provide continuous support to bank lending, as evidenced by the higher than expected take-up in the latest operation. While the September baseline scenario had assumed some resurgence of the virus and the need for ongoing containment measures, recent developments were seen as constituting a clear downside risk to the projections. Despite concerns that ECB has run out of gunpowder, President Lagarde affirmed that “the options in our toolbox have not been exhausted. Overall, it was emphasised that there was no clear trade-off between containment measures required to reduce the spread of the virus and the impact on the economy and it was recognised that, ultimately, concerns about the economy would remain until a vaccine or effective treatment became widely available, which could take some time. It is often common for the market to pressure a central bank ahead of important decisions, and this December is no different. The euro area unemployment rate, which had increased from 7.2% in February to 8.1% in August, likely underestimated the ongoing adjustment in the euro area labour market. Members were of the view that in the period ahead containment measures could be expected to become more stringent and to last longer than previously anticipated. Looking ahead, the outlook for services was gloomy, while industry appeared more resilient. Unlike in spring, however, so far there had been no widespread flight into safe-haven assets. ET The Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting is held every six weeks, with the next meeting scheduled for Thursday 10 December 2020. The ECB is meeting — here’s what analysts say to expect Last Updated: Oct. 29, 2020 at 3:04 a.m. Moreover, by that time, draft national budgetary plans and their assessment by the European Commission should also have become available, together with further indications on the prospective use of NGEU funds. The European Central Bank’s chief economist plans to place private calls to banks and investors after the ECB’s policy meeting next week, he said 2 December, continuing an unusual communications practice that has … Since March, Philip Lane, the chief economist, has spoken directly with a … ECB Meeting Preview - More Stimulus in December? Reference was made to the level of the composite output PMI, which had fallen below 50, and to the fact that the PMI for new business had fallen back even more strongly. At the current juncture, members viewed the monetary policy stance as highly accommodative and appropriate. The Peninsula newspaper provides extensive news coverage, incisive analyses and trenchant commentary from around the world, but with firm roots and primary focus on life in Qatar. The relatively muted reaction of markets to the second wave of the pandemic was seen as evidence of the effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy measures in containing tail risks, including the risk of market fragmentation. The President started the meeting by observing that, while the policy measures taken by the Governing Council at its monetary policy meeting … Qatar reiterates support for efforts to reform... Biomedical Research Center at Qatar University... Qatar International Court celebrates 10 years of... Can we overcome COVID-19’s long-term effects? It was also remarked that the rate of infections appeared to be more relevant for economic activity than the stringency of containment measures, which varied considerably. These purchases contributed to easing the overall monetary policy stance, thereby helping to offset the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation. While fiscal measures taken in response to the pandemic emergency should, as much as possible, be targeted and temporary in nature, weak demand from firms and households and the heightened risk of a delayed recovery warranted continued support from national fiscal policies. Although fiscal policy measures were supporting households and firms, consumers were cautious in the light of the pandemic and its ramifications for employment and earnings. Had come back rapidly early in the weeks to come, key information would be to! 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